Across Europe, the bus driver shortage has moved from a workforce headline to an operational constraint. It shows up as cancelled runs, fragile timetables, and daily pressure on planned mileage.
The International Road Transport Union (IRU) estimates Europe had 105,000 unfilled bus and coach driver positions in 2023 (about 10%), and warns the gap could reach more than 275,000 unfilled roles by 2028 without significant action. [1]
This is not a short-term dip. IRU points to a structural pipeline problem: less than 3% of drivers are under 25, more than 40% are over 55, and only 16% are women. [2]
At the same time, UITP estimates that Europe lacks ~10% of bus drivers needed to deliver expected service levels, and notes that in major public transport companies, drivers can represent as much as 70% of the workforce. That’s why small losses in usable driver time add up fast. [3]
Hiring remains essential — but it’s no longer sufficient on its own. PTOs are pairing recruitment with measures that protect capacity and improve retention, because reliability now depends on both. [3]
When you are short of drivers, the whole operation gets tighter:
EU-level analysis notes that shortages in public transport can disrupt services and, in some regions, contribute to services being reduced or discontinued. [4]
For PTO leadership teams, the point is simple: workforce scarcity is now one of the main drivers of reliability risk.
Autonomy gets a lot of attention — but not all autonomy efforts help in a driver shortage.
Many “autonomous bus” demonstrations still run with an on-board operator or safety driver. That can validate technology and build confidence, but it does not release driver-hours back into the system if a qualified person still needs to be scheduled on every vehicle. [6]
So the operational question is:
Can it help deliver more reliable service with constrained driver availability — while improving the day-to-day job so people stay?
A clear industry signal from Germany aligns with that framing. In March 2026, VDV President Ingo Wortmann argued that autonomy in public transport should be treated as a strategic response to structural driver shortages to secure and expand services, and he highlighted the squeeze of rising personnel costs alongside declining availability in driving services. [5]
If the near-term goal is capacity, retention, and reliability, the depot is often the highest-leverage place to start.
Depots concentrate work that is:
Yard manoeuvres, parking, staging, queueing for wash/charge, pulling vehicles to the start line — these actions are essential, but they consume scarce driver-minutes every single day. Depot automation can act as a capacity multiplier by reducing low-value driving time and reallocating driver time to passenger service, where humans matter most.
This is an illustrative model (you’ll replace assumptions with your own depot time audit):
Assume depot-related manoeuvres and movements consume 24 minutes per bus per day in total (pull-out, yard moves, pull-in, staging). For a fleet of 300 buses:
What does that mean in staffing terms?
Your real number will depend on depot layout, electrification workflows, staging rules, peak pull-out windows, and how many movements you currently require. The point is that depot minutes scale across the fleet, every day — which is why they can materially improve reliability under structural scarcity.
More resilient service delivery
Reducing non-passenger tasks increases usable driver-hours and lowers the chance that tight staffing turns immediately into missed trips or reactive service reductions.
Better pull-out predictability
Standardising and automating repeatable depot movements can reduce variance, helping the network start the day more reliably and reducing knock-on delays.
A practical working-conditions lever
Sector guidance increasingly treats job attractiveness and retention as part of protecting service. Reducing daily operational strain and improving predictability supports retention — and reliability follows. [3]
A credible autonomy story aligned to public service|
Framing autonomy as an instrument to secure and expand services under structural shortage matches how sector leaders are increasingly describing the problem. [5]
The Smartbus Onboard Program is our structured approach to implementing autonomous depot technology without disrupting your operations. It consists of three strategic phases: Smartbus Ready (preparation and risk assessment), Smartbus Pilot (technical validation without commitment), and Smartbus Tender (operational validation with minimal risk).
Europe’s driver shortage is increasingly a service delivery constraint. Recruitment and training remain critical, but PTOs also need levers that protect capacity and reduce operational fragility now.
Depot automation is one of the most practical autonomy pathways for this reality: it targets high-frequency, low-value driving work; returns time to where drivers create the most value; and strengthens the predictability that underpins reliable public transport.